By John Jefferson

This is a deer forecast, but first things first!

Special Teal season opened Saturday, 9-10-22, along with Early Canada Goose season.

Nationwide, blue-winged teal have increased nearly 20-percent over recent surveys! But Texas was dry and looked grim in August. Then, it started raining. And it continued. Rains replenished ponds and stimulated plant production in time for the season. The special seasons ends on 9-25-22. Bag limit is six teal per day: five Canadas. Possession limit is 18 doves: 15 Canadas. Enjoy this blessing!

And bow season opens Oct.1 – Nov. 4.

Just as last year, the whitetail forecast will be spread over two columns — too much information for one

This week’s covers the Hill Country (Edwards Plateau), Rolling Plains, and Pineywoods. Next week’s covers South Texas, Cross Timbers, and Post Oak regions. See map.

TPWD white-tailed deer program leader, Alan Cain, reported in late summer that the drought has affected weights, antler size, and fawn crops statewide. All three are lower than in 2021. East Texas fared a little better.

Then, the rains began. And they continued. I asked him if that changed his forecast.

“The recent rains certainly improved range and habitat conditions but came too late to provide any meaningful impact on antlers or fawn crops,” he replied.  He added that new vegetation could adversely affect early season hunting but he expects a good harvest with five million deer in Texas!

Edwards Plateau

The Hill Country has roughly two million deer – and good hunting! Densest concentrations are around Llano, Mason, and adjoining counties. Hunter success is very high – about 76 percent. The doe to buck ratio is still way too high and there’ll be fewer bucks 4.5 – 5.5 – years old due to poor fawn crops in 2017 and 2018. Taking a doe instead of a young buck is encouraged. Older bucks may be found throughout, but particularly between Hondo and Del Rio, north of Highway 90. The western Plateau suffered an anthrax outbreak in 2019 and the deer population is still. Recovering.

Rolling Plains

Although the Eastern and Western Rolling Plains have lower deer populations than most Texas regions, there are more mature bucks expected in both regions compared to other areas. And more of the 2021 harvest included mature bucks: 85.7 percent in Western RP; 69 percent in Eastern RP. Large ranches, lighter hunting pressure, and increased interest in management helped, and should continue this season. Hunter success is higher in the Eastern RP. Below average antlers are expected statewide west of I-35, but average Boone and Crockett scores of RP bucks are comparable to Brush Country scores. Hunting may be hard, but possibly very rewarding.

Pineywoods

Deer densities, here, are all over the map. The lowest were between Houston and Beaumont; highest along I-45. Low fawn production keeps the population from growing, but it’s higher than recent years. Well managed properties are often healthier. Expect more 4.5 – 5.5 – year – old bucks with quality antlers. Antler restrictions have helped.

JJ